An evaluation of Chinese macroeconomic forecasts

Research output: Journal PublicationArticlepeer-review

10 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This article evaluates the quality of professional macroeconomic forecasts in China for the years 1995-2009. Using a large panel of forecasts on four macroeconomic variables (GDP, inflation, consumption and investment), we reject the hypothesis of unbiasedness, and find that forecasters have been, on average, overly pessimistic. The source of the bias lies primarily in forecasters' slow adjustment to structural shocks to the level of economic growth. We also reject the hypothesis that forecasters use information efficiently, and find that a large number of forecasters overreact to economic news. Finally, we document large differences of forecast accuracy across both forecasters and variables.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)229-246
Number of pages18
JournalJournal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies
Volume10
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Aug 2012

Keywords

  • China
  • forecast bias
  • forecast efficiency
  • macroeconomic forecasts

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)

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