Abstract
Urbanization brings physical changes to land surfaces of Shanghai and consequently impacts its local climate. Studies of urbanization effect on urban climate for Shanghai area using numerical modelling is insufficient. The purpose of this research is to narrow the gap by coupling the Weather Research and Forecasting model with the NOAH land surface model and the Urban Canopy Model - WRF/NOAH/UCM to examine the urban climatology of Shanghai since 21st century.The model is first validated against a network of meteorological observations in the region to determine its suitability for urban climate investigations. Climatological variables (near-surface temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed) along with land use and land cover changes, planetary boundary layer height, and urban heat island intensity of the area are also investigated. The model evaluation shows good performance over the region. Land use and land cover change demonstrates strong influence in thermal climatology variations.
The results shows that the average heat island intensity in Shanghai increased by 1.08°C from 2000 to 2017, with the highest heat island intensity reaching 3.41°C. Torrid area (Thermohydrometric Index > 30) also improved by 11%. Other climatological variables varied accordingly with the urbanization processes.
The simulation of climate prediction for Shanghai in 2030 shows that the development under representative concentration pathway 8.5 will face the worst thermal condition, and the intensity of heat island effect will be further increased by about 2°C compared with the current situation. Among them, 63% and 37% are from the background of global warming and urbanization, respectively.
| Date of Award | Oct 2022 |
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| Original language | English |
| Awarding Institution |
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| Supervisor | Jun He (Supervisor) & Wu Deng (Supervisor) |