The time-varying impact of geopolitical risk on natural resource prices: The post-COVID era evidence

The geopolitical risk plays a pivotal role in affecting commodity price variations, especially natural resource commodity prices. Geopolitical risk is sensitive to political environmental changes and geopolitical events, including COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. On this basis, our study attempts to scrutinize the time-varying characteristics of geopolitical risk impact on natural resource commodity prices against recent geopolitical events. By applying the data from natural resource commodity markets, we unravel the fact that U.S. geopolitical risk has a stronger impact on energy market prices, and this impact becomes even stronger after the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Finally, we unfold that the downside risk comovement between metal prices and China geopolitical risk is stronger. Further, the downside risk comovement between energy prices and United States geopolitical risk is more profound. Our paper could deliver implications for policymakers and investors. We notify that the establishment of an early warning system for geopolitical events can be useful to policymakers. Our result further motivates investors to rebalance their portfolios’ risk exposure in a time-varying way, especially after geopolitical events.