Forecasting tourism recovery amid COVID-19

Hanyuan Zhang; Haiyan Song; Long Wen; Chang Liu

doi:10.1016/j.annals.2021.103149

Forecasting tourism recovery amid COVID-19

Hanyuan Zhang, Haiyan Song, Long Wen, Chang Liu

Research output: Journal Publication › Article › peer-review

281 Citations (Scopus)

249 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

The profound impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on global tourism activity has rendered forecasts of tourism demand obsolete. Accordingly, scholars have begun to seek the best methods to predict the recovery of tourism from the devastating effects of COVID-19. In this study, econometric and judgmental methods were combined to forecast the possible paths to tourism recovery in Hong Kong. The autoregressive distributed lag-error correction model was used to generate baseline forecasts, and Delphi adjustments based on different recovery scenarios were performed to reflect different levels of severity in terms of the pandemic's influence. These forecasts were also used to evaluate the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism industry in Hong Kong.

Original language	English
Article number	103149
Journal	Annals of Tourism Research
Volume	87
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2021.103149
Publication status	Published - Mar 2021

Keywords

COVID-19
Crisis management
Delphi method
Forecasting scenarios
Tourism demand

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Development
Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management

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10.1016/j.annals.2021.103149

27 Forecasting tourism recovery amid COVID-19Accepted author manuscript, 1.29 MBLicence: CC BY

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AB - The profound impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on global tourism activity has rendered forecasts of tourism demand obsolete. Accordingly, scholars have begun to seek the best methods to predict the recovery of tourism from the devastating effects of COVID-19. In this study, econometric and judgmental methods were combined to forecast the possible paths to tourism recovery in Hong Kong. The autoregressive distributed lag-error correction model was used to generate baseline forecasts, and Delphi adjustments based on different recovery scenarios were performed to reflect different levels of severity in terms of the pandemic's influence. These forecasts were also used to evaluate the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism industry in Hong Kong.

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KW - Crisis management

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JO - Annals of Tourism Research

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Forecasting tourism recovery amid COVID-19

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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