Crystalline lens nuclear age prediction as a new biomarker of nucleus degeneration

Background The crystalline lens is a transparent structure of the eye to focus light on the retina. It becomes muddy, hard and dense with increasing age, which makes the crystalline lens gradually lose its function. We aim to develop a nuclear age predictor to reflect the degeneration of the crystalline lens nucleus. Methods First we trained and internally validated the nuclear age predictor with a deep-learning algorithm, using 12 904 anterior segment optical coherence tomography (AS-OCT) images from four diverse Asian and American cohorts: Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center with Machine0 (ZOM0), Tomey Corporation (TOMEY), University of California San Francisco and the Chinese University of Hong Kong. External testing was done on three independent datasets: Tokyo University (TU), ZOM1 and Shenzhen People's Hospital (SPH). We also demonstrate the possibility of detecting nuclear cataracts (NCs) from the nuclear age gap. Findings In the internal validation dataset, the nuclear age could be predicted with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 2.570 years (95% CI 1.886 to 2.863). Across the three external testing datasets, the algorithm achieved MAEs of 4.261 years (95% CI 3.391 to 5.094) in TU, 3.920 years (95% CI 3.332 to 4.637) in ZOM1-NonCata and 4.380 years (95% CI 3.730 to 5.061) in SPH-NonCata. The MAEs for NC eyes were 8.490 years (95% CI 7.219 to 9.766) in ZOM1-NC and 9.998 years (95% CI 5.673 to 14.642) in SPH-NC. The nuclear age gap outperformed both ophthalmologists in detecting NCs, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.853 years (95% CI 0.787 to 0.917) in ZOM1 and 0.909 years (95% CI 0.828 to 0.978) in SPH. Interpretation The nuclear age predictor shows good performance, validating the feasibility of using AS-OCT images as an effective screening tool for nucleus degeneration. Our work also demonstrates the potential use of the nuclear age gap to detect NCs.