The potential impact of climate change on heating and cooling loads for office buildings in the Yangtze River Delta

Located in the ‘Hot Summer Cold Winter’ climatic zone of China, the Yangtze River Delta area is one of the most challenging regions for providing occupant comfort in buildings, and effects of climate change in the next 100 years will make further increase in energy consumption. This article uses climate change data from HadCM3 to generate test reference years (TRYs) compiled for 2020s, 2050s and 2080s under various future scenarios for the cities of Ningbo, Shanghai and Hangzhou. Simulations were then conducted to see if effects of climate change can be contained or even reversed with improvements in building standards, and it was shown that energy consumption can be significantly reduced with building improvements, even in the face of climate change.