This paper has three objectives. First, it examines the link between the term spread (difference between long-term and short-term rate of interest) and GDP growth in the Korean economy for the period 1980-1999. Second, it tests for the independent information content of the term spread by including current and expected monetary policy indicators. Third, it explores the usefulness of the spread as a leading indicator of recessions and poses the question, was the crisis of 1997-1998 predictable?
|Number of pages||5|
|Journal||Applied Economics Letters|
|Publication status||Published - 20 Oct 2004|
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Economics and Econometrics