Promotion prospects and policy choice: evidence from the land market in China

Chang Xue, Xiaoyu Zhang

Research output: Journal PublicationArticlepeer-review


The career prospects of politicians are crucial determinants of their policy choices. This paper studies the impact of promotion incentives on policy choices by analyzing data on prefecture officials and local land market dynamics in China from 2007 to 2017. Our findings indicate that a decrease in promotion prospects for prefecture party secretaries hampers their motivation to promote economic growth. This results in a decline in industrial land transactions. However, similar patterns are not observed among mayors. Further exploration reveals that officials experiencing a decline in prospects exhibit a negative stance toward economic growth, as evidenced by their annual working reports. This research sheds light on the nuanced relationship between political career incentives and policy outcomes in the context of local land markets.

Original languageEnglish
JournalPublic Choice
Publication statusPublished - 23 Feb 2024


  • H77
  • Land market
  • Local government policy
  • O43
  • P25
  • Political connection
  • Promotion incentive

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Sociology and Political Science
  • Economics and Econometrics


Dive into the research topics of 'Promotion prospects and policy choice: evidence from the land market in China'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this