Intention progression using quantitative summary information

A key problem for Belief-Desire-Intention (BDI) agents is intention progression, i.e., which plans should be selected and how the execution of these plans should be interleaved so as to achieve the agent's goals. Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) has been shown to be a promising approach to the intention progression problem, out-performing other approaches in the literature. However, MCTS relies on runtime simulation of possible interleavings of the plans in each intention, which may be computationally costly. In this paper, we introduce the notion of quantitative summary information which can be used to estimate the likelihood of conflicts between an agent's intentions. We show how offline simulation can be used to precompute quantitative summary information prior to execution of the agent's program, and how the precomputed summary information can be used at runtime to guide the expansion of the MCTS search tree and avoid unnecessary runtime simulation. We compare the performance of our approach with standard MCTS in a range of scenarios of increasing difficulty. The results suggest our approach can significantly improve the efficiency of MCTS in terms of the number of runtime simulations performed.