Evidence and belief in regulatory decisions - Incorporating expected utility into decision modelling

J. Li; G. J. Davies; G. Kendall; E. Soane; R. Bai; S. A. Rocks; S. J.T. Pollard

doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2012.01.193

Evidence and belief in regulatory decisions - Incorporating expected utility into decision modelling

J. Li, G. J. Davies, G. Kendall, E. Soane, R. Bai, S. A. Rocks, S. J.T. Pollard

School of Computer Science

Research output: Journal Publication › Article › peer-review

6 Citations (Scopus)

46 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Recent changes in the assessment and management of risks has had the effect that greater importance has been placed on relationships between individuals and within groups to inform decision making. In this paper, we provide the theoretical underpinning for an expected utility approach to decision-making. The approach, which is presented using established evidence support logic (TESLA™), integrating the expected utilities in the forming of group decisions. The rationale and basis are described and illustrated through a hypothetical decision context of options for the disposal of animal carcasses that accumulate during disease outbreaks. The approach forms the basis for exploring the richness of risk-based decisions, and representing individual beliefs about the sufficiency of evidence they may advance in support of hypotheses.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	8604-8610
Number of pages	7
Journal	Expert Systems with Applications
Volume	39
Issue number	10
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2012.01.193
Publication status	Published - Aug 2012

Keywords

Decision support
Evidence support logic
Expected utility
Group decision making
Risk
TESLA™
Uncertainty

ASJC Scopus subject areas

General Engineering
Computer Science Applications
Artificial Intelligence

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10.1016/j.eswa.2012.01.193

Evidence and belief in regulatory decisionsFinal published version, 551 KBLicence: CC BY-NC-ND

Cite this

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title = "Evidence and belief in regulatory decisions - Incorporating expected utility into decision modelling",

abstract = "Recent changes in the assessment and management of risks has had the effect that greater importance has been placed on relationships between individuals and within groups to inform decision making. In this paper, we provide the theoretical underpinning for an expected utility approach to decision-making. The approach, which is presented using established evidence support logic (TESLA{\texttrademark}), integrating the expected utilities in the forming of group decisions. The rationale and basis are described and illustrated through a hypothetical decision context of options for the disposal of animal carcasses that accumulate during disease outbreaks. The approach forms the basis for exploring the richness of risk-based decisions, and representing individual beliefs about the sufficiency of evidence they may advance in support of hypotheses.",

keywords = "Decision support, Evidence support logic, Expected utility, Group decision making, Risk, TESLA{\texttrademark}, Uncertainty",

author = "J. Li and Davies, {G. J.} and G. Kendall and E. Soane and R. Bai and Rocks, {S. A.} and Pollard, {S. J.T.}",

note = "Funding Information: The authors acknowledge support from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) grant ( EP/E017975/1 ) on which GJD was funded. The Collaborative Centre of Excellence in Understanding and Managing Natural and Environmental Risks (Risk Centre) is funded by Defra, EPSRC, NERC, ESRC and Cranfield University under EPSRC Grant EP/G022682/1 . We are grateful for the discussions held with colleagues at Quintessa during the development of this approach. The views expressed herein are the authors{\textquoteright} alone. ",

year = "2012",

month = aug,

doi = "10.1016/j.eswa.2012.01.193",

language = "English",

volume = "39",

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journal = "Expert Systems with Applications",

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AU - Li, J.

AU - Davies, G. J.

AU - Kendall, G.

AU - Soane, E.

AU - Bai, R.

AU - Rocks, S. A.

AU - Pollard, S. J.T.

N1 - Funding Information: The authors acknowledge support from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) grant ( EP/E017975/1 ) on which GJD was funded. The Collaborative Centre of Excellence in Understanding and Managing Natural and Environmental Risks (Risk Centre) is funded by Defra, EPSRC, NERC, ESRC and Cranfield University under EPSRC Grant EP/G022682/1 . We are grateful for the discussions held with colleagues at Quintessa during the development of this approach. The views expressed herein are the authors’ alone.

PY - 2012/8

Y1 - 2012/8

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AB - Recent changes in the assessment and management of risks has had the effect that greater importance has been placed on relationships between individuals and within groups to inform decision making. In this paper, we provide the theoretical underpinning for an expected utility approach to decision-making. The approach, which is presented using established evidence support logic (TESLA™), integrating the expected utilities in the forming of group decisions. The rationale and basis are described and illustrated through a hypothetical decision context of options for the disposal of animal carcasses that accumulate during disease outbreaks. The approach forms the basis for exploring the richness of risk-based decisions, and representing individual beliefs about the sufficiency of evidence they may advance in support of hypotheses.

KW - Decision support

KW - Evidence support logic

KW - Expected utility

KW - Group decision making

KW - Risk

KW - TESLA™

KW - Uncertainty

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Evidence and belief in regulatory decisions - Incorporating expected utility into decision modelling

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Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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