Evidence and belief in regulatory decisions - Incorporating expected utility into decision modelling

J. Li, G. J. Davies, G. Kendall, E. Soane, R. Bai, S. A. Rocks, S. J.T. Pollard

Research output: Journal PublicationArticlepeer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)
3 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Recent changes in the assessment and management of risks has had the effect that greater importance has been placed on relationships between individuals and within groups to inform decision making. In this paper, we provide the theoretical underpinning for an expected utility approach to decision-making. The approach, which is presented using established evidence support logic (TESLA™), integrating the expected utilities in the forming of group decisions. The rationale and basis are described and illustrated through a hypothetical decision context of options for the disposal of animal carcasses that accumulate during disease outbreaks. The approach forms the basis for exploring the richness of risk-based decisions, and representing individual beliefs about the sufficiency of evidence they may advance in support of hypotheses.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)8604-8610
Number of pages7
JournalExpert Systems with Applications
Volume39
Issue number10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Aug 2012

Keywords

  • Decision support
  • Evidence support logic
  • Expected utility
  • Group decision making
  • Risk
  • TESLA™
  • Uncertainty

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Engineering (all)
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Artificial Intelligence

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