Assessing the accuracy of businesslevel forecasts

Pete Brodie, Tullio Buccellato, Eric Scheffel

Research output: Journal PublicationArticlepeer-review


This article presents original work on some aspects of forecasting at the individual business or firmlevel. In particular, two ways are suggested for assessing the accuracy of these forecasts based on the calculation of average percentage errors and the construction of a 95 per cent confidence interval. It is found that the quality of forecasts tend to become increasingly unreliable after two years and that the decay in forecast quality is inversely related to the frequency of the time series that is the less often a time series is updated/published the faster the deterioration in forecast quality.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)119-134
Number of pages16
JournalEconomic and Labour Market Review
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2011
Externally publishedYes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Industrial relations
  • Economics and Econometrics
  • Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management


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