A Novel Framework for Predicting the Spread of COVID-19 by Contact Tracing Through Smartphone

Jiayi Shi, Weixue Sheng, Pushpendu Kar, Monideepa Roy, Sujoy Datta

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

In recent times, COVID-19 is the most severe epidemic disease and it needs to be controlled as soon as possible. Promising ideas and mathematical models have been proposed to predict the number of infected people in a particular timeline and project its development tendency. In this paper, to further increase the accuracy of prediction, we propose a new model named AMSD model at an agent scale by combining three models that are widely used in this field: the social network model, the mobility model, and the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model. Initially, the mobility model could identify people's mobility patterns on weekdays and weekends, and during the day and at night. Then, by combining this model with the social network model, we could classify people by their social connections in the network, with a more accurate prediction of infected people. The basic SEIR model is enhanced to find the spread/growth of viruses between and within people and has four stages from susceptible to recovered. AMSD model, as the combination of these three models is a more comprehensive approach to better present and predict the propagation of COVID-19, which involves many more important social factors.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2021 International Wireless Communications and Mobile Computing, IWCMC 2021
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages570-575
Number of pages6
ISBN (Electronic)9781728186160
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2021
Event17th IEEE International Wireless Communications and Mobile Computing, IWCMC 2021 - Virtual, Online, China
Duration: 28 Jun 20212 Jul 2021

Publication series

Name2021 International Wireless Communications and Mobile Computing, IWCMC 2021

Conference

Conference17th IEEE International Wireless Communications and Mobile Computing, IWCMC 2021
Country/TerritoryChina
CityVirtual, Online
Period28/06/212/07/21

Keywords

  • COVID-19
  • Contact tracing
  • MCS
  • Spreading map

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Networks and Communications
  • Signal Processing
  • Information Systems and Management
  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

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