Abstract
This thesis presents three essays on food security in developing countries. The first chapter presents a general introduction to the three essays.In the first essay presented in Chapter 2, we explore the global interconnectedness among agricultural commodity markets, crude oil, and fertiliser markets, especially during periods of crisis such as the 2008 Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Crude oil and fertilisers are critical inputs of agriculture and hence have the potential to explain food price fluctuations that have repercussions for food security. The findings reveal significant return and volatility connectedness, which fluctuates over time, intensifying during economic crises. Agricultural commodities, mostly cereals, produce a larger return spillover effect on other agricultural commodities, while crude oil is the largest transmitter of volatility shocks to both fertilisers and agricultural commodities. We further gain insights on these connectedness dynamics, acknowledging the unique characteristics of different crises.
The second essay presented in Chapter 3 uses Ghana as a case study to explore the dynamics of food price volatility and its implications for food security. This chapter examines the interconnectedness among cereal markets in Ghana and the spatial transmission of maize prices. We find that the rice market, particularly imported rice, plays a crucial role in transmitting shocks within the Ghanaian food market. Furthermore, generally, internal crises tend to have a more pronounced impact on explaining food price instability as compared to global crises and uncertainties. Chapters 2 and 3 essentially offer valuable insights into price spillovers in global and domestic agricultural commodity markets, respectively, and their implications for food security.
The third essay in Chapter 4 addresses the compounded challenges of climate change and conflict to food security in Africa. This chapter addresses crucial questions concerning how these factors interact and impact food security not just within a focal country but also indirectly in neighbouring countries. We confirm that rainfall is beneficial to food security both directly and indirectly, but temperature is unfavourable. Additionally, conflict reinforces the effects of climate change in the region. Our findings also suggest that, while humanitarian help, food aid, and other resilience initiatives may mitigate the negative impact of conflict on food security in the short run, conflict, including nonviolent forms such as protests and riots, has a detrimental long-term impact on food security. This study concludes that climate change and conflict have an impact on all aspects of food security, not only food availability.
Chapter 5 concludes the thesis, summarising the key findings, recommendations and future research.
| Date of Award | 15 Nov 2025 |
|---|---|
| Original language | English |
| Awarding Institution |
|
| Supervisor | Chew Chua (Supervisor), Nana Kufuor (Supervisor) & Eric Opoku (Supervisor) |