Enabling the clean energy transition: implications of lithium mining on water resource access

Abstract

The rapid expansion of the clean energy transition, driven by global climate mitigation commitments, is expected to increase demand for critical minerals essential to low-carbon technologies substantially. Among energy transition minerals (ETMs), lithium plays a strategic role in enabling the large-scale deployment of electric vehicles (EVs) and energy storage systems (ESS). However, lithium extraction from both hard-rock deposits and salar brines can place significant pressure on regional water resources through freshwater consumption and brine evaporation. Sustainable water management in the lithium mining sector is therefore critical. Achieving this requires a systematic understanding of future lithium demand-supply dynamics and their associated water impacts, which is essential for policymakers seeking to balance mineral supply security with ecosystem protection.
Recent attention to water-related challenges in the mining industry has increased, yet several critical gaps remain. These include uncertainties in future lithium demand under alternative clean energy transition pathways, difficulties in simulating spatially and temporally heterogeneous supply dynamics, limited quantification of the water implications of lithium mining and insufficient integration of social dimensions into environmental assessments. Addressing these challenges through an integrated analysis of lithium material flows and their water-related impacts is therefore critical for advancing sustainable lithium resource governance in the transition towards a clean energy pathway.
This research is guided by three core questions: (1) how global lithium demand and supply may evolve under the clean energy transition; (2) how much water the lithium mining industry currently uses and how the public perceives water-related issues; and (3) what water scarcity risks lithium mining may pose in the future and which mitigation strategies could be applied?
To address these questions, this research developed an integrated model, the Lithium–Water Impact Model (LiWat). LiWat mainly integrates five methodological modules, including (1) social awareness analysis of ETM mining using global news data (Chapter 3), (2) integrated assessment modelling via the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to derive lithium demand drivers (Chapter 4), (3) stock-driven material flow analysis (MFA) to reconstruct historical and future lithium cycles (Chapter 4), (4) agent-based modelling (ABM) to capture supply-side heterogeneity and mining project dynamics (Chapter 5); and (5) water scarcity footprint (WSF) analysis combining site-specific inventories with hydrological indicators (Chapter 6). The integrated framework is then applied as a case study for China to illustrate its applicability and derive policy-relevant insights (Chapter 7).
The research was structured around three main analytical components. First, current water challenges were assessed from both environmental and social perspectives (Chapter 3), combining mine-level water use data with large-scale sentiment analysis of global news coverage. Second, future lithium demand was projected under multiple scenarios from 2020 to 2050 (Chapter 4). Third, the global lithium supply landscape from 2020 to 2050 was simulated, incorporating permitting scenarios (Chapter 5). These projections were subsequently coupled with extraction route-specific water use intensities and regional water stress indicators to estimate prospective water scarcity footprints (Chapter 6). A regional case study of China illustrated how global dynamics translate into national-level water challenges and mitigation strategies (Chapter 7).
By linking anthropogenic lithium material cycles with site-specific water scarcity conditions under multiple future scenarios, this thesis contributes methodologically to the analysis of sustainable mineral development in the clean energy transition. It advances understanding of lithium’s demand-supply dynamics, mine-level heterogeneity, and water use quantification while incorporating technological and governance dimensions. By integrating environmental, social, and policy perspectives, the research provides insights to support strategic water governance and responsible mineral sourcing in the clean energy era.

Date of Award	15 Nov 2026
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	University of Nottingham
Supervisor	Faith Chan (Supervisor), Bo Li (Supervisor), Jon McKechnie (Supervisor) & Wei-Qiang Chen (Supervisor)