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Traffic Conflict Analysis at Freeway Interchange Merging Areas: A Joint Model Based on Tobit and Survival Analysis Model

  • Xin Gu
  • , Yi Yang
  • , Yunxuan Li*
  • , Zhengbing He
  • , Yanyan Chen
  • *Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

Freeway interchange merging areas suffer from high crash risk due to the frequent lane change behaviors, which bring disturbance to transverse and longitudinal traffic flow. This paper proposes a joint model based on the tobit and survival analysis model to explore the relationship between vehicles’ merging behavior and their traffic conflicts, and to investigate the influencing factors. The trajectory data from Maqun interchange, Nanjing, is used for analysis. The tobit method is applied to model the merging traffic conflict rate, and the survival analysis method is used to model the merging duration of vehicles. Traditional traffic conflict counting models are developed for comparison. The results show that the joint model outperforms other models and there exists coupling relationship between the merging duration and the conflict rate. The speed of the following vehicle in the target lane and the type of lead vehicle in the target lane have significant effects.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationCICTP 2023
Subtitle of host publicationInnovation-Empowered Technology for Sustainable, Intelligent, Decarbonized, and Connected Transportation - Proceedings of the 23rd COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals
EditorsYanyan Chen, Jianming Ma, Guohui Zhang, Haizhong Wang, Lijun Sun, Zhengbing He
PublisherAmerican Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)
Pages1615-1625
Number of pages11
ISBN (Electronic)9780784484869
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2023
Externally publishedYes
Event23rd COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals: Innovation-Empowered Technology for Sustainable, Intelligent, Decarbonized, and Connected Transportation, CICTP 2023 - Beijing, China
Duration: 14 Jul 202317 Jul 2023

Publication series

NameCICTP 2023: Innovation-Empowered Technology for Sustainable, Intelligent, Decarbonized, and Connected Transportation - Proceedings of the 23rd COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals

Conference

Conference23rd COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals: Innovation-Empowered Technology for Sustainable, Intelligent, Decarbonized, and Connected Transportation, CICTP 2023
Country/TerritoryChina
CityBeijing
Period14/07/2317/07/23

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Transportation

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