Term spread and real economic activity in Korea: Was the crisis predictable?

Ivan Paya; Kent Matthews

doi:10.1080/1350485042000254908

Term spread and real economic activity in Korea: Was the crisis predictable?

Ivan Paya, Kent Matthews

Research output: Journal Publication › Article › peer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper has three objectives. First, it examines the link between the term spread (difference between long-term and short-term rate of interest) and GDP growth in the Korean economy for the period 1980-1999. Second, it tests for the independent information content of the term spread by including current and expected monetary policy indicators. Third, it explores the usefulness of the spread as a leading indicator of recessions and poses the question, was the crisis of 1997-1998 predictable?

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	797-801
Number of pages	5
Journal	Applied Economics Letters
Volume	11
Issue number	13
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1080/1350485042000254908
Publication status	Published - 20 Oct 2004
Externally published	Yes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Economics and Econometrics

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1080/1350485042000254908

Cite this

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title = "Term spread and real economic activity in Korea: Was the crisis predictable?",

abstract = "This paper has three objectives. First, it examines the link between the term spread (difference between long-term and short-term rate of interest) and GDP growth in the Korean economy for the period 1980-1999. Second, it tests for the independent information content of the term spread by including current and expected monetary policy indicators. Third, it explores the usefulness of the spread as a leading indicator of recessions and poses the question, was the crisis of 1997-1998 predictable?",

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AB - This paper has three objectives. First, it examines the link between the term spread (difference between long-term and short-term rate of interest) and GDP growth in the Korean economy for the period 1980-1999. Second, it tests for the independent information content of the term spread by including current and expected monetary policy indicators. Third, it explores the usefulness of the spread as a leading indicator of recessions and poses the question, was the crisis of 1997-1998 predictable?

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Term spread and real economic activity in Korea: Was the crisis predictable?

Abstract

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

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