Strategic profiles and tactical shifts: Rethinking China’s digital diplomacy

This article revisits assumptions about China’s ‘Wolf Warrior’ diplomacy by analysing patterns in official digital communication. Drawing on a manually coded sample of 3846 tweets from verified Chinese diplomatic accounts (2017–2022), we identify five recurring communication profiles – Informer, Promoter, Complex Challenger, Taiwan Challenger, and Provoker – that reflect consistent combinations of tone, function, topic, and geographic focus. Using cluster analysis and weighted scoring, we track how these profiles feature across time and diplomatic context. Rather than showing a wholesale turn towards confrontational rhetoric, the data reveal a stable messaging repertoire where more assertive profiles appear selectively and temporarily. A case study of the COVID-19 pandemic further illustrates how diplomats intensified certain styles during periods of reputational pressure while maintaining continuity in broader messaging. The study offers a structured framework for understanding how state actors organise digital communication through patterned variation, challenging simplified narratives of an aggressive diplomatic turn.</jats:p>