Stochastic extension of newell's three-detector method

A stochastic extension of Newell's three-detector method is presented. The method predicts the traffic states at an intermediate location given boundary data from downstream and upstream detectors. The method presented takes into account day-to-day variations in the arrivals, sensor detection errors, and variability in the fundamental diagram parameters. The output is the probabilistic distribution of predicted cumulative counts, which can be used to obtain confidence bounds on any traffic variable. The method is tested with empirical data.