Same goal, different paths: regional transformative innovation policies and coal phase-out (down) in China

How can we explain divergent regional coal phase-down pathways within a large country? We develop a co-evolutionary conceptual framework that elucidates how regional policy change, regional capabilities and socio-technical regime transformation interact dynamically to shape distinct transition trajectories within national policy frameworks and regional structural conditions. We apply this framework to two Chinese provinces – Inner Mongolia and Guangdong – that exhibit markedly different coal phase-down pathways despite the same national decarbonisation agenda. The study contributes to research on place-based transformative innovation policy by showing that regional energy transitions emerge from co-evolutionary interactions among region-specific policy, capability and structural dynamics.