Policy-Driven Scenarios for Sustainable Peri-Urban Land Use: Production–Living–Ecological Space in Yubei District, Chongqing

Sustainable land-use planning in peri-urban areas relies on informed decision-making guided by the examination of various development strategies. This study demonstrates a policy-based multi-scenario simulation which can serve as an aid to decision-making. Using the transformation of production–living–ecological (PLE) spaces in the Yubei District, a peri-urban district in Chongqing (2005 to 2020), as the baseline, the projections, simulated for 2035 under four scenarios, highlight the impacts of varying land-use policies: the reference scenario (RS), allowing unrestricted transformations, risks agricultural productivity and ecological integrity; the economic development scenario (S1) reveals the ecological costs associated with an economics-driven urban expansion; in contrast, the green development (S2) and agricultural land protection (S3) scenarios prioritize balanced growth and agricultural-land preservation so that ecological resilience and food security can be effectively maintained. Overall, significant land-use changes may occur, characterized by a substantial increase in living space, a decrease in production space, and stable ecological areas. This scenario-based analysis provides a comprehensive overview as to potential policy-driven planning outcomes. This aids in the identification of policy options that would best harmonize ecological, economic, and social objectives, offering essential insights for sustainable urbanization and land management in developing areas such as the Yubei District.