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Inflation, Money Demand, and Portfolio Choice

  • Kosuke Aoki
  • , Alexander Michaelides*
  • , Kalin Nikolov
  • , Yuxin Zhang
  • *Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Journal PublicationArticlepeer-review

Abstract

We estimate a structural, nominal, life-cycle portfolio choice model with exogenous housing tenure and use shopping costs to generate money demand. Homeowners (renters) with negative (positive) net bond positions react differently to changing inflation risks. The correlation between real bond and real stock returns emerges as the strongest inflation risk quantitatively and generates large increases in stock market demand for homeowners in a 1970s counterfactual. Higher expected inflation encourages stock market participation but affects negatively poorer households without access to that adjustment. A more negative inflation-bond return correlation pushes homeowners more into the stock market, whereas poorer renters move into money.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)853-873
Number of pages21
JournalManagement Science
Volume72
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 16 May 2025

Free Keywords

  • hedging demands
  • inflation
  • life-cycle models
  • money demand
  • portfolio choice
  • stock market participation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Strategy and Management
  • Management Science and Operations Research

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