Approach based on risk for traffic network reliability

This paper provides an approach based on risk for traffic network reliability, which is called RBR, and studies its definition, formulation and applications. First, the definition of RBR is proposed, and its differences from other traffic network reliabilities are compared. Then, an estimation approach for the distribution function of travel time on a link is given based on historical data by the kernel estimation method, and RBR on a link is able to obtain through this approach; the error analysis and back testing methods are employed to calculate the error of this approach. Furthermore, the historical data from a highway in Tianjin are used for the verification of RBR and its calculation. At last, Route RBR and Network RBR are discussed, respectively.