Application of the ISCST3 model for predicting PCDD/F concentrations in agricultural soil in the vicinity of a MSWI plant in China

Based on the Industrial Source Complex Short-Term Version 3 (ISCST3) model, a simplified modeling approach was developed to predict concentrations of congeners of polychlorinated-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) of agricultural soil, within a radius of 3 km from a municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) plant after its 4-year operation in Hangzhou, China. Comparisons were made between the measured and estimated congener-specific concentrations and the international-toxic equivalent (I-TEQ) values of soil samples with respect to distance from the stack. The results indicate that the predictions of soil PCDD/F concentrations and I-TEQ values were generally lower than their observations, and that the higher the degree of under-estimation seems, the greater the further downwind one gets. Nevertheless, most of the predictions were in good agreement with the trend of measured ones and were within a factor of ten for samples located within 1 km of the plant. Besides, analysis of contributions of various deposition pathways confirms that in addition to wet particle deposition, the dry gaseous deposition is essential for realistic prediction of PCDD/F depositions to soil, especially for tetra- and penta-chlorinated dioxins.