Abstract
Accurate and reliable motion forecasting is essential for the safe deployment of autonomous vehicles (AVs), particularly in rare but safety-critical scenarios known as corner cases. Existing models often underperform in these situations due to an over-representation of common scenes in training data and limited generalization capabilities. To address this limitation, we present WM-MoE, the first world model-based motion forecasting framework that unifies perception, temporal memory, and decision making to address the challenges of high-risk corner-case scenarios. The model constructs a compact scene representation that explains current observations, anticipates future dynamics, and evaluates the outcomes of potential actions. To enhance long-horizon reasoning, we leverage large language models (LLMs) and introduce a lightweight temporal tokenizer that maps agent trajectories and contextual cues into the LLM’s feature space without additional training, enriching temporal context and commonsense priors. Furthermore, a mixture-of-experts (MoE) is introduced to decompose complex corner cases into subproblems and allocate capacity across scenario types, and a router assigns scenes to specialized experts that infer agent intent and perform counterfactual rollouts. In addition, we introduce nuScenes-corner, a new benchmark that comprises four real-world corner-case scenarios for rigorous evaluation. Extensive experiments on four benchmark datasets (nuScenes, NGSIM, HighD, and MoCAD) showcase that WM-MoE consistently outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) baselines and remains robust under corner-case and data-missing conditions, indicating the promise of world model-based architectures for robust and generalizable motion forecasting in fully AVs.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 105456 |
| Journal | Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies |
| Volume | 183 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Feb 2026 |
| Externally published | Yes |
Free Keywords
- Autonomous driving
- Large language models
- Mixture of experts models
- Motion forecasting
- World models
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Civil and Structural Engineering
- Automotive Engineering
- Transportation
- Management Science and Operations Research
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