此消彼长 :共享单车对城市公共交通客运总量的影响

The rapid expansion of bike sharing has significantly affected urban public transit. Although previous studies have examined the effects of bike sharing on city buses and rail transit, the overall effect of bike sharing on public transit remains unclear. In particular, long-term trends and underlying mechanisms driving these changes warrant a more comprehensive investigation. This study addresses this gap using a staggered difference-in-differences approach to analyze how bike sharing affects city-bus, rail-transit, and public-transit ridership. Our findings show that following the introduction of bike sharing, city-bus ridership decreased by 0.128 standard deviations (approximately 123.8 million trips, an 8.77% decrease), whereas rail-transit ridership increased by 0.088 standard deviations (approximately 82.52 million trips, a 14.34% increase). This offsetting effect led to no net change in public-transit ridership. Over time, the negative effect of bike sharing on city-bus ridership has intensified, whereas its positive effect on rail-transit ridership has grown steadily. In larger cities and areas with better public-transit access, bike sharing tends to reduce city-bus ridership and increase rail-transit ridership. We recommend integrating bike sharing with urban public transit to increase ridership, creating dedicated bus lanes in congested areas to enhance bus competitiveness. Additionally, reduce city-bus routes in high-accessibility areas to mitigate competition between city buses and bike sharing, and increase routes in low-accessibility areas to enhance the advantages of city-bus services.