A neoclassical realist study on space power politics: why do space powers compete and when do they cooperate

Abstract

This dissertation investigates the strategic behaviors of major space powers through the lens of neoclassical realism, seeking to identify and unpack the drivers behind the strategic changes of these space powers. It argues that shifts in space strategy are primarily driven by changes in relative space capabilities and domestic perceptions of future capability distributions. The former is defined by data on the number of space launches and payload capacity while the latter is determined by three different domestic variables: leadership perception, bureaucratic politics, and fiscal constraints. In sum, the study develops a typology matrix categorizing space powers based on their actual and perceived capabilities. This matrix is applied to a series of case studies covering Cold War rivalries, post-Cold War hegemonic adjustments, China’s emergence as a space power, and Russia’s strategic decline. Through process tracing and mixed-method analysis, the research identifies key points where strategic behavior diverged due to a combination of relative space capabilities and domestic perceptions on future trends of relative space capabilities.

This study presents a fresh perspective on neoclassical realism in the context of space politics, recognizing the methodological hurdles we face, especially when it comes to applying domestic variables consistently across different cases. It also highlights the challenge of obtaining reliable sources, particularly from opaque regimes. Despite these challenges, the research offers both a valuable analytical framework and meaningful empirical insights, deepening our understanding of space as a vibrant field of great power interactions. Here, cooperation and competition don't stand in opposition to one another; instead, they are shaped by the circumstances we encounter.

Date of Award	15 Nov 2025
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	University of Nottingham
Supervisor	Maria Julia Trombetta (Supervisor) & Grant Dawson (Supervisor)